Why are records rare? [Merged/Admin]

omen of hate · Post by **omen of hate** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:37 pm

It has always been a mystery to me : how do you proceed to rate the rarity of an item : the quantity of originals pressed ? the difficulties you had to find it ? ....

Post by **DaN** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:09 pm

Split from this thread since it's a good question and a subject worthy of debate.

Which I will attend to later tonight when I've finished work.

ION BRITTON · Post by **ION BRITTON** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:20 pm

1. Copies pressed
2. Degree of demand
3. How often do copies appear on sale
4. Year of release. 100 copies pressed in 1984 are more difficult to find than 100 copies pressed in 2005. That is less important than the aforementioned factors yet it can define the degree of rarity at some point.
5. US metal / Not US metal

Post by **DaN** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:34 pm

ION BRITTON wrote:5. US metal / Not US metal

So feckin true...

tomas · Post by **tomas** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:13 pm

You can add another variable:
'Country'
By which I mean that Ostrogoth EPs and Acid LPs very common here in Belgium but I can imagine that they're very rare in Peru or Japan.

Abyss · Post by **Abyss** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:24 pm

how many people are hording multiple copies and how many are lost or have gone missing,I've heard plenty of stories of such things happening such as the band not even owning a copy anymore let alone the master tapes.

sovdat · Post by **sovdat** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:42 pm

how often something appears for sale.

Morbid Saint CD may be going for $100 each time it is on ebay, but I've seen at least 10-15 copies in the past year, while Paralysis - Arctic Sleep appears once a year perhaps (or at least I know for three copies, sold in last three years), but it doesn't go higher than $30-$40 ...

Therefore, if I was to rate the rarity status, I'd give Paralysis a higher (rarer) rate than Morbid Saint ...

Cochino · Post by **Cochino** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:54 pm

tomas wrote:You can add another variable:
'Country'
By which I mean that Ostrogoth EPs and Acid LPs very common here in Belgium but I can imagine that they're very rare in Peru or Japan.

But that's not always the case, when I went to Uruguay they told me that is more strange to find someone with a copy of Graf Spee's LP or Alvacast there than in any other part of the world, because collectors took most of them away, and the people who still owns them is not gonna sell.

nightsblood · Post by **nightsblood** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:15 pm

The only objective measure is # pressed. All the other factors are of course important, but they're gonna vary from album to album. There's no way to know how many copies have been lost, destroyed, or severely damaged over the years. The odds of copies being destroyed increases with time since release, but that's still gonna vary among albums.
Some of the factors mentioned are related. Demand for/popularity of an item will dictate to some degree how often copies appear for sale. A very popular items is less likely to be offered for sale as often because more collectors will keep it rather than part with it.

ION BRITTON · Post by **ION BRITTON** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:24 pm

sovdat wrote:
Morbid Saint CD may be going for $100 each time it is on ebay, but I've seen at least 10-15 copies in the past year, while Paralysis - Arctic Sleep appears once a year perhaps (or at least I know for three copies, sold in last three years), but it doesn't go higher than $30-$40 ...

Morbid Saint ends higher because the demand for it is greater. However, in this example, Paralysis is rarer (at least for the time being, because if MS continues at this rate and if we also assume that almost all recent buyers keep their copies and not resell them, it will end up being rarer than Paralysis and will definitely hit a higher price)

ION BRITTON · Post by **ION BRITTON** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:29 pm

nightsblood wrote: Some of the factors mentioned are related.

Yes, and the final price of the item is related to all of them. Bidding wars between two idiots on ebay are excluded.

sovdat · Post by **sovdat** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:45 pm

About that Morbid Saint: In 2007 I saw a bunch of copies sold from $60 - $90. Now, there's just about as many copies offered, but the price went up to $120-$150 or even more. I thought that slowly but surely all potential buyers will get their copies so the price will drop, I guess I was wrong

About the demand: Would some Metallica release, that was released in 10.000 copies, get a higher rarity status than an underground release, known just in collector corner, that was released in few hundred copies, for example Crillson CD (200 copies exist)??

ION BRITTON · Post by **ION BRITTON** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:53 pm

sovdat wrote: About the demand: Would some Metallica release, that was released in 10.000 copies, get a higher rarity status than an underground release, known just in collector corner, that was released in few hundred copies, for example Crillson CD (200 copies exist)??

The difference in numbers is quite big in this example. It is almost certain that many of the Metallica copies will be resold over and over again, 10.000 copies is not a small quantity. So, it will probably not reach Crillson's prices unless there are more than 10.000 crazy Metallica fans who want everything from their favorite band in their collection (they don't have to love only the music, they must have the collectors bug too!) and none of them (that's 0 out of 10.000 remember) will ever wish to get rid of his own copy. Not very possible i think.

ION BRITTON · Post by **ION BRITTON** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:59 pm

sovdat wrote:About that Morbid Saint: In 2007 I saw a bunch of copies sold from $60 - $90. Now, there's just about as many copies offered, but the price went up to $120-$150 or even more. I thought that slowly but surely all potential buyers will get their copies so the price will drop, I guess I was wrong

Just remember how many people were after Heathen's Rage EP 10 years ago and how many are now. With those hyped/overhyped records it usually goes this way, not the way you were expecting

sovdat · Post by **sovdat** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 9:41 pm

There's just one year difference in that Morbid Saint case

Therefore: Can the rarity status be judged by its price or should these two be treated one at a time?

For example, Sanctum - Believers CD is well known in collectors circles and is worth, let's say $200-$250 - 100 copies pressed.
Animus - A Dead Life CD was also pressed in about 100 copies, perhaps less (in 1992), but it seems that no-one "in the know" knows about it - the only known copy was sold for $1 (on ebay, buyer was Roco from this forum) - would they both deserve a 10/10 rarity status or not in your opinion?